China’s Latest Out-of-Control Rocket Expected to Crash on Friday

Launch of Long March 5B on July 24, 2022.

Launch of Long March 5B on July 24, 2022.
Image: Liu Huayu (A.P)

A 21 metric ton core stage is set to make an uncontrolled re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere on November 4 at 10:21 PM ET, give or take about 16 hours. Sadly, this is the fourth time that remnants of China’s Long March 5B rocket have endangered lives and property.

We’ll update this page as new information comes to light, so be sure to check back for regular updates.

Update: Nov. 3, 8:50 a.m. ET: Aerospace Corp. has slightly scaled back its estimates. The uncontrolled reentry of the Long March 5B core stage is now predicted to occur at 7:17 pm ET (11:17 pm UTC) on Friday, November 4, with an error bar of plus or minus 10 hours.

Update: Nov. 2, 5:05 p.m. ET: And we’re back to Friday, at least for people living in the Eastern Time Zone and the West. The latest projection has a re-entry at 9:55 pm ET on Friday, November 4 (1:55 am UTC). The error bar has shrunk again, and is now at plus-minus 11 hours. When looking at the Aerospace Corporation’s Debris Markers map, keep in mind that the blue and yellow lines represent potential re-entry routes, while the spaces (or gaps) between the lines represent areas that are at risk. I am not

Update: Nov. 2, 4:08 p.m. ET: The error bar continues to shrink as expected. Aerospace Corporation Update Tweeted 12:47 pm ET presents a forecast of 1:10 am ET for Saturday, November 5 (5:10 am UTC), with a margin of error set at 13 hours. The primary phase is limited to the northernmost latitude of 41.5 degrees and the southernmost latitude of -41.5 degrees. About 80% of the world’s population lives in this zone.

Update: Nov. 2, 10:02 a.m. ET: The latest estimate from the aerospace corporation extends the time by a few hours, moving the forecast to late Friday into early Saturday for those in the Eastern Time Zone. The primary phase is now expected to re-enter at 12:51 am ET on November 5 (4:51 am UTC) with an error bar of 14 hours.

The original post follows.

Long March 5B Blown up from the Wenchang Space Launch Center in Henan on Monday, October 31. deliver The third and final module is called Mengtian, at China’s Tiangong Space Station. Most of the rocket stages are brought down with the new engines, allowing them to move away from populated areas, but not from Long March 5B. Most irresponsibly, China’s space agency does not take this precaution with its heavy-lift launch vehicle, which largely depends on where it can land.

So now we are forced to guess where the primary phase might fall. As on previous occasions, the Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies (CORDS) is tracking and delivering the object. Regular updates. The company’s preliminary forecast shows that uncontrolled reentry will occur on Friday, November 4 (Saturday, November 5 at 2:21 am UTC) at 10:21 pm ET. The aerospace corporation formulates its estimates by analyzing data from the US Space Force’s Space Surveillance Network.

It is too early to know where the debris will fall. The potential area into which the primary phase could fall, known as the “debris scar,” will be limited by time, but if previous episodes were any indication, we should be able to re-enter. Won’t really know until the first few minutes. Objects from space travel travel at speeds of 17,500 mph (28,164 km/h), which means that a one-hour error in re-entry time predicts a 17,500-mile (28,164 km) error. Translates to the location of

This will mark the fourth time that the Long March 5B core stage has crashed uncontrollably. On three previous occasions, debris It fell on an inhabited area along the west coast of Africa.; I Indian Ocean Near Maldives; and I North Borneo. Mercifully no one was injured or killed, but Scientists have expressed concern. That it may eventually happen.

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